An unpopular opinion regarding the current Hong Kong and North Korea situations

This was posted on Reddit a while ago but I’ve refined it a bit since then. Here’s the updated version.

Shepherd Iverson’s book “Stop North Korea!: A Radical New Approach to the North” talked about a Faustian proposal in giving huge sums of cash and incentives pooled from the “reunification investment fund” to Kim Jong-un and almost everyone else in North Korea in hopes of giving them a “face-saving exit” for denuclearization and possibly even liberalisation. For KJU and his family the author said that they can even obtain immunity and to live in peace although they won’t be able to touch politics again.

However the book also acknowledged the possible chaos that might ensue if the elites over there decide to voluntarily dismantle NK by themselves because of the said incentives. On top of that while US and South Korean forces move in to help dismantle the nukes, China would likely move into the region too and form a 100-km length buffer zone because they feared at the prospects of US troops across Yalu River in terms of geo-strategy which would definitely make US and South Korea feel unhappy.

At one bad scenario involving a new unjust partition of the Korean peninsula following a chaotic collapse he mentioned that the US can ask China to give concessions like cancelling the 9 dash line in South China Sea in exchange for recognition of Chinese presence in Korea like the Taft-Katsura agreement long ago. In short it’s like “if you want to get something, you must lose something”. After all the book implied that as most of the Chinese nowadays actually want to see Kim’s regime gone because the latter is too brash and unhinged if the Yalu river issue are not standing in the way, the CCP would be viewed as the hero if they’re successful in establishing presence there without much fuss and help with the denuclearisation.

Instead of 9 dash line I suddenly think of the five demands of Hong Kong protests as a possible bargaining chip in the approach. If somehow the CCP can be convinced in softening their stances toward Hong Kong such as acceding in all five demands or at least the main part of it, in exchange for the perks as mentioned above that would be very interesting. As all the reasons for supporting US forces in Korea would be pretty much rendered moot after the fall of the current Kim regime, in the long term China can even ask for the withdrawal of US armies from the peninsula in exchange for their own withdrawal should de-jure reunification become fully possible.

However, the “new partition solution” would risk putting the Korean people into another unjust situation, unlike the reunification investment fund solution which wouldn’t likely involve the new partition at all. For the latter the author also optimistically said that China can use their Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to contribute to the reunification thereby in turn boosting its image home and aboard, while the US can simultaneously assuage both Chinese and Korean fears by leaving only a small part of USFK troops at Jeju Island; I think this too can be a part of bargaining chip to induce China to give concessions like fulfilling all the Hong Kong protesters demands.

Last but not least the book mentioned that the funds necessary for the “reunification investment fund” can be raised at any moment if big companies like Samsung and Hyundai are willing to donate their sums to it, and the “now or never” warning in cautioning the dangers of maintaining the current status quo. Presently I think that there are 3 actions the CCP might take in regards to Hong Kong – all are dead ends:

* Sit idly and drag it out, but risking the protests getting out of control.

* Cave in to protesters, but this alone would make CCP look weak and erode its legitimacy.

* Suppress the protest like the June 4th, but attracting international consternation.

As the CCP is forced into a tight corner right now most of us are fearing that they will lash out by choosing option #3 in order to ‘save their faces’ very soon, although recently one of the demands (retracting the extradition bill) is on the verge in being fulfilled as of now. If the book-derived fourth solution is introduced to the scene suddenly we have a possible route to simultaneously deal with Hong Kong and North Korea issues peacefully, two-in-one and with the outcome being a win-win situation.

Although still the radical Faustian solution is still incomprehensible even for me so it’s perfectly okay should you can’t resist to disagree me for this. Otherwise your feedbacks regarding this are welcomed though.

May the force be with you.